Andy Whipp v Gary Walker (Fri 11 Oct 2019)
Match won by Andy Whipp. Result: 11-2,11-3,11-3.
Starting level for
Andy Whipp:
18,393, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Gary Walker:
6,686, level confidence: 50%.
Andy Whipp to win as he is currently playing
175% better than Gary Walker.
Andy Whipp won all of the games and 80% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 313% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Whipp played
313% better than Gary Walker in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andy Whipp actually played at a level of
22,523 and Gary Walker at a level of
5,460. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Whipp changes to +7.9% and Gary Walker changes to -13%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Whipp becomes +2.3% and for Gary Walker becomes -4.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Cheshire Senior Closed Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Whipp: 90%, Gary Walker: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Whipp: 74%, Gary Walker: 57%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Andy Whipp:
18,872, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Gary Walker:
6,428, level confidence: 57%.