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Andy Whipp v Ameel Talib (Sun 13 Oct 2019)

Match won by Andy Whipp. Result: 11-2,11-2,11-6.

Starting level for Andy Whipp: 18,872, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ameel Talib: 5,955, level confidence: 52%.
Andy Whipp to win as he is currently playing 217% better than Ameel Talib.

Andy Whipp won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Whipp played 230% better than Ameel Talib in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andy Whipp actually played at a level of 19,258 and Ameel Talib at a level of 5,836. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.1% and 1.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Whipp changes to +0.8% and Ameel Talib changes to -1.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Whipp becomes +0.4% and for Ameel Talib becomes -0.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Cheshire Senior Closed Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Whipp: 86%, Ameel Talib: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Whipp: 84%, Ameel Talib: 71%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andy Whipp: 18,986, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Ameel Talib: 5,932, level confidence: 71%.