Nicolas Mueller v Richie Fallows (Mon 07 Oct 2019)
Match won by Nicolas Mueller. Result: 11-4,11-13,13-11,11-4.
Starting level for
Nicolas Mueller:
37,693, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Richie Fallows:
30,604, level confidence: 49%.
Nicolas Mueller to win as he is currently playing
23% better than Richie Fallows.
Nicolas Mueller won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 44% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nicolas Mueller played
31% better than Richie Fallows in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nicolas Mueller actually played at a level of
38,901 and Richie Fallows at a level of
29,653. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.2% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller changes to +1.8% and Richie Fallows changes to -2.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller becomes +0.7% and for Richie Fallows becomes -1.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nicolas Mueller: 88%, Richie Fallows: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nicolas Mueller: 86%, Richie Fallows: 68%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Nicolas Mueller:
37,816, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Richie Fallows:
30,457, level confidence: 68%.