SquashLevels calculations
Mazen Hesham v Spencer Lovejoy (Mon 07 Oct 2019)
Match won by Mazen Hesham. Result: 11-4,11-3,11-9.
Starting level for
Mazen Hesham:
41,937, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Spencer Lovejoy:
19,428, level confidence: 50%.
Mazen Hesham to win as he is currently playing
116% better than Spencer Lovejoy.
Mazen Hesham won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mazen Hesham played
106% better than Spencer Lovejoy in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mazen Hesham was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 30,707 and 41,937 without affecting his level.
In this case, Mazen Hesham played at level 40,070 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Spencer Lovejoy is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mazen Hesham: 86%, Spencer Lovejoy: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mazen Hesham: 84%, Spencer Lovejoy: 69%.
Final level for Mazen Hesham:
41,937, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Spencer Lovejoy:
19,428, level confidence: 69%.