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Mohamed Elshorbagy v Campbell Grayson (Wed 09 Oct 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 11-6,11-7,12-10.

Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 69,787, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Campbell Grayson: 41,580, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 68% better than Campbell Grayson.

Mohamed Elshorbagy won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played 50% better than Campbell Grayson in this match.

In this case, Mohamed Elshorbagy played at level 63,550 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Mohamed Elshorbagy would normally have been playing at level 64,668 (based on typical behaviour), Campbell Grayson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to 0% and Campbell Grayson changes to +1.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes 0% and for Campbell Grayson becomes +0.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 88%, Campbell Grayson: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 83%, Campbell Grayson: 85%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 69,673, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Campbell Grayson: 42,071, level confidence: 85%.