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Chris Hall v Sarah-Jane Perry (Mon 14 Oct 2019)

Match won by Chris Hall. Result: 11-7,11-4,11-8.

Starting level for Chris Hall: 21,459, level confidence: 36%.
Starting level for Sarah-Jane Perry: 10,458, level confidence: 90%. Set manually.
Chris Hall to win as he is currently playing 105% better than Sarah-Jane Perry.

Chris Hall won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Hall played 74% better than Sarah-Jane Perry in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Chris Hall was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 15,658 and 21,459 without affecting his level.

In this case, Chris Hall played at level 18,407 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Chris Hall would normally have been playing at level 18,654 (based on typical behaviour), Sarah-Jane Perry played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Hall changes to 0% and Sarah-Jane Perry changes to +0.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Hall becomes 0% and for Sarah-Jane Perry becomes 0%.

Given Sarah-Jane Perry's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 18% has been applied to her level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Chris Hall is 0% and for Sarah-Jane Perry is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Hall: 60%, Sarah-Jane Perry: 95%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Hall: 55%, Sarah-Jane Perry: 87%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Hall: 21,513, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Sarah-Jane Perry: 10,496, level confidence: 87%.