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Chris Ryder v Howard Lancashire (Mon 14 Oct 2019)

Match won by Chris Ryder. Result: 11-4,8-11,11-1,11-4.

Starting level for Chris Ryder: 19,687, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Howard Lancashire: 9,729, level confidence: 56%.
Chris Ryder to win as he is currently playing 102% better than Howard Lancashire.

Chris Ryder won 75% of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 105% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Ryder played 51% better than Howard Lancashire in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Chris Ryder was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 14,501 and 19,687 without affecting his level.

In this case, Chris Ryder played at level 15,910 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Chris Ryder would normally have been playing at level 17,186 (based on typical behaviour), Howard Lancashire played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Ryder changes to 0% and Howard Lancashire changes to +5.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Ryder becomes 0% and for Howard Lancashire becomes +2.1%.

Given Howard Lancashire's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Chris Ryder is 0% and for Howard Lancashire is +1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Ryder: 78%, Howard Lancashire: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Ryder: 67%, Howard Lancashire: 65%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Ryder: 19,736, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Howard Lancashire: 9,887, level confidence: 65%.