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Lewis Anderson v Mike Potter (Tue 15 Oct 2019)

Match won by Lewis Anderson. Result: 11-4,11-4,11-9.

Starting level for Lewis Anderson: 16,240, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mike Potter: 7,535, level confidence: 48%.
Lewis Anderson to win as he is currently playing 116% better than Mike Potter.

Lewis Anderson won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Anderson played 94% better than Mike Potter in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Lewis Anderson was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 11,449 and 16,240 without affecting his level.

In this case, Lewis Anderson played at level 14,627 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Mike Potter is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Anderson: 87%, Mike Potter: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Anderson: 83%, Mike Potter: 66%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lewis Anderson: 16,281, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Mike Potter: 7,554, level confidence: 66%.