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Lewis Anderson v Paul Stroud (Mon 14 Oct 2019)

Match won by Lewis Anderson. Result: 11-6,11-8,11-8.

Starting level for Lewis Anderson: 16,314, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Stroud: 8,553, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Lewis Anderson to win as he is currently playing 91% better than Paul Stroud.

Lewis Anderson won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Anderson played 52% better than Paul Stroud in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Lewis Anderson was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 12,604 and 16,314 without affecting his level.

In this case, Lewis Anderson played at level 13,736 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Lewis Anderson would normally have been playing at level 14,547 (based on typical behaviour), Paul Stroud played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson changes to 0% and Paul Stroud changes to +3.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson becomes 0% and for Paul Stroud becomes +1.7%.

Given Paul Stroud's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Lewis Anderson is 0% and for Paul Stroud is +1.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Anderson: 86%, Paul Stroud: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Anderson: 77%, Paul Stroud: 81%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lewis Anderson: 16,355, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Paul Stroud: 8,674, level confidence: 81%.