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Stuart Macgregor v Jan Van Den Herrewegen (Mon 14 Oct 2019)

Match won by Stuart Macgregor. Result: 10-12,4-11,12-10,11-8,11-7.

Starting level for Stuart Macgregor: 20,097, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 32,424, level confidence: 54%.
Jan Van Den Herrewegen to win as he is currently playing 61% better than Stuart Macgregor.

Stuart Macgregor won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Macgregor played 8% better than Jan Van Den Herrewegen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Macgregor actually played at a level of 26,467 and Jan Van Den Herrewegen at a level of 24,620. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor changes to +18% and Jan Van Den Herrewegen changes to -24%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor becomes +4.4% and for Jan Van Den Herrewegen becomes -5%.

Given Stuart Macgregor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 39% has been applied to his level change.

Given Jan Van Den Herrewegen's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 58% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor is +2.4% and for Jan Van Den Herrewegen is -2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Macgregor: 84%, Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Macgregor: 64%, Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 56%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Stuart Macgregor: 20,621, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 31,767, level confidence: 56%.