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Scott Handley v Jack Webster (Wed 16 Oct 2019)

Match won by Scott Handley. Result: 11-3,11-6,9-11,8-11,11-9.

Starting level for Scott Handley: 13,428, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Jack Webster: 10,402, level confidence: 56%.
Scott Handley to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Jack Webster.

Scott Handley won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Scott Handley played 14% better than Jack Webster in this match.

As Scott Handley has played below his allowed range at 12,304, his level reduction is 4% before damping. On the assumption that Scott Handley would normally have been playing at level 13,143 (based on typical behaviour), Jack Webster played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.5% and 4.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Scott Handley changes to -2.8% and Jack Webster changes to +4.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Scott Handley becomes -1.3% and for Jack Webster becomes +1.9%.

Given Scott Handley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 26% has been applied to his level change.

Given Jack Webster's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 18% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Scott Handley is -0.8% and for Jack Webster is +1.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Scott Handley: 83%, Jack Webster: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Scott Handley: 78%, Jack Webster: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Scott Handley: 13,357, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Jack Webster: 10,553, level confidence: 70%.