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Steven Richardson v Neil Cordell (Wed 16 Oct 2019)

Match won by Neil Cordell. Result: 5-11,8-11,11-8,12-14.

Starting level for Steven Richardson: 12,926, level confidence: 43%.
Starting level for Neil Cordell: 17,393, level confidence: 59%.
Neil Cordell to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Steven Richardson.

Neil Cordell won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neil Cordell played 24% better than Steven Richardson in this match.

As Neil Cordell has played below his allowed range at 16,176, his level reduction is 0.9% before damping. On the assumption that Neil Cordell would normally have been playing at level 16,905 (based on typical behaviour), Steven Richardson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.7% and 2.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neil Cordell changes to -0.5% and Steven Richardson changes to +2.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neil Cordell becomes -0.2% and for Steven Richardson becomes +1.1%.

Given Neil Cordell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 34% has been applied to his level change.

Given Steven Richardson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 25% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Neil Cordell is 0% and for Steven Richardson is +0.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neil Cordell: 77%, Steven Richardson: 65%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neil Cordell: 74%, Steven Richardson: 63%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steven Richardson: 13,042, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Neil Cordell: 17,413, level confidence: 74%.