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Perry Malik v Ruudi Clarke (Wed 16 Oct 2019)

Match won by Perry Malik. Result: 11-7,17-15,12-10.

Starting level for Perry Malik: 15,085, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ruudi Clarke: 8,604, level confidence: 50%.
Perry Malik to win as he is currently playing 75% better than Ruudi Clarke.

Perry Malik won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Perry Malik played 35% better than Ruudi Clarke in this match.

As Perry Malik has played below his allowed range at 11,982, his level reduction is 3.2% before damping. On the assumption that Perry Malik would normally have been playing at level 13,811 (based on typical behaviour), Ruudi Clarke played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.4% and 6.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Perry Malik changes to -1.7% and Ruudi Clarke changes to +6.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Perry Malik becomes -0.8% and for Ruudi Clarke becomes +2.5%.

Given Perry Malik's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 30% has been applied to his level change.

Given Ruudi Clarke's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Perry Malik is -0.4% and for Ruudi Clarke is +1.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Perry Malik: 85%, Ruudi Clarke: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Perry Malik: 74%, Ruudi Clarke: 62%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Perry Malik: 15,056, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Ruudi Clarke: 8,768, level confidence: 62%.