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Jack Martell v Tim Vail (Fri 18 Oct 2019)

Match won by Tim Vail. Result: 9-11,9-11,6-11.

Starting level for Jack Martell: 12,641, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Tim Vail: 21,944, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Tim Vail to win as he is currently playing 74% better than Jack Martell.

Tim Vail won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Vail played 43% better than Jack Martell in this match.

In this case, Tim Vail played at level 19,103 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Tim Vail would normally have been playing at level 20,148 (based on typical behaviour), Jack Martell played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Vail changes to 0% and Jack Martell changes to +4.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Vail becomes 0% and for Jack Martell becomes +1.7%.

Given Jack Martell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 24% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Sussex Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Tim Vail is 0% and for Jack Martell is +1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Vail: 88%, Jack Martell: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Vail: 80%, Jack Martell: 76%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jack Martell: 12,801, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Tim Vail: 21,999, level confidence: 80%.