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Jordan Warne v Joe Lee (Fri 18 Oct 2019)

Match won by Joe Lee. Result: 7-11,4-11,2-11.

Starting level for Jordan Warne: 11,591, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Joe Lee: 24,721, level confidence: 66%.
Joe Lee to win as he is currently playing 113% better than Jordan Warne.

Joe Lee won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joe Lee played 154% better than Jordan Warne in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joe Lee actually played at a level of 26,970 and Jordan Warne at a level of 10,624. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.1% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.1% and 6.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joe Lee changes to +6.1% and Jordan Warne changes to -5.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joe Lee becomes +1.9% and for Jordan Warne becomes -2.1%.

Given Joe Lee's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 47% has been applied to his level change.

Given Jordan Warne's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 21% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Sussex Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Joe Lee is +1% and for Jordan Warne is -1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joe Lee: 81%, Jordan Warne: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joe Lee: 74%, Jordan Warne: 76%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jordan Warne: 11,469, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Joe Lee: 25,020, level confidence: 74%.