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Perry Malik v Nathan Mead (Fri 20 Sep 2019)

Match won by Perry Malik. Result: 11-9,11-5,8-11,11-7.

Starting level for Perry Malik: 16,093, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Nathan Mead: 8,273, level confidence: 43%.
Perry Malik to win as he is currently playing 95% better than Nathan Mead.

Perry Malik won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Perry Malik played 26% better than Nathan Mead in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Perry Malik was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 12,621 and 16,093 without affecting his level.

As Perry Malik has played below his allowed range at 11,471, his level reduction is 10% before damping. On the assumption that Perry Malik would normally have been playing at level 14,252 (based on typical behaviour), Nathan Mead played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.1% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Perry Malik changes to -5.1% and Nathan Mead changes to +12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Perry Malik becomes -1.8% and for Nathan Mead becomes +3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'South West Gold - Millfield Junior Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Perry Malik: 77%, Nathan Mead: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Perry Malik: 62%, Nathan Mead: 53%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Perry Malik: 15,794, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Nathan Mead: 8,578, level confidence: 53%.