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Perry Malik v Simon Herbert (Sat 21 Sep 2019)

Match won by Simon Herbert. Result: 7-11,11-8,7-11,11-9,9-11.

Starting level for Perry Malik: 15,405, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Simon Herbert: 12,974, level confidence: 56%.
Perry Malik to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Simon Herbert.

Simon Herbert won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Herbert played 10% better than Perry Malik in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Simon Herbert actually played at a level of 14,846 and Perry Malik at a level of 13,462. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Herbert changes to +13% and Perry Malik changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Herbert becomes +3.7% and for Perry Malik becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'South West Gold - Millfield Junior Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Herbert: 75%, Perry Malik: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Herbert: 65%, Perry Malik: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Perry Malik: 14,885, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Simon Herbert: 13,433, level confidence: 65%.