Joe Lee v Declan James (Wed 16 Oct 2019)
Match won by Declan James. Result: 11-7,10-12,11-5,4-11,3-11.
Starting level for
Joe Lee:
24,148, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for
Declan James:
40,908, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing
69% better than Joe Lee.
Declan James won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played
12% better than Joe Lee in this match.
As Declan James has played below his allowed range at 30,444, his level reduction is 13% before damping. On the assumption that Declan James would normally have been playing at level 37,814 (based on typical behaviour), Joe Lee played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 18%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.5% and 14% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to -8.4% and Joe Lee changes to +14%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes -2.1% and for Joe Lee becomes +3.4%.
Given Declan James's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 69% has been applied to his level change.
Given Joe Lee's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 46% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Declan James is -0.9% and for Joe Lee is +1.7%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 87%, Joe Lee: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 71%, Joe Lee: 66%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Joe Lee:
24,627, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Declan James:
40,630, level confidence: 71%.