Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu v Sajad Zareian (Sun 13 Oct 2019)
Match won by Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu. Result: 11-7,15-13,11-4.
Starting level for
Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu:
24,874, level confidence: 12%.
Starting level for
Sajad Zareian:
17,913, level confidence: 36%.
Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu to win as he is currently playing
39% better than Sajad Zareian.
Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 54% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu played
54% better than Sajad Zareian in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu actually played at a level of
26,232 and Sajad Zareian at a level of
16,985. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.5% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.6% and 4.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu changes to +4.6% and Sajad Zareian changes to -1.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu becomes +1.6% and for Sajad Zareian becomes -0.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Srfi Indian Tour' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 34%, Sajad Zareian: 60%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 33%, Sajad Zareian: 57%.
Final level for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu:
25,265, level confidence: 33%.
Final level for Sajad Zareian:
17,796, level confidence: 57%.