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Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu v Sajad Zareian (Sun 13 Oct 2019)

Match won by Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu. Result: 11-7,15-13,11-4.

Starting level for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 24,874, level confidence: 12%.
Starting level for Sajad Zareian: 17,913, level confidence: 36%.
Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Sajad Zareian.

Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 54% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu played 54% better than Sajad Zareian in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu actually played at a level of 26,232 and Sajad Zareian at a level of 16,985. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.6% and 4.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu changes to +4.6% and Sajad Zareian changes to -1.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu becomes +1.6% and for Sajad Zareian becomes -0.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Srfi Indian Tour' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 34%, Sajad Zareian: 60%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 33%, Sajad Zareian: 57%.

Final level for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 25,265, level confidence: 33%.
Final level for Sajad Zareian: 17,796, level confidence: 57%.