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Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu v Shehab Essam (Mon 14 Oct 2019)

Match won by Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu. Result: 11-5,11-4,8-11,11-8.

Starting level for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 25,499, level confidence: 32%.
Starting level for Shehab Essam: 27,785, level confidence: 45%.
Shehab Essam to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu.

Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 46% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu played 32% better than Shehab Essam in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu actually played at a level of 30,589 and Shehab Essam at a level of 23,161. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu changes to +19% and Shehab Essam changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu becomes +4.3% and for Shehab Essam becomes -3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Srfi Indian Tour' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 57%, Shehab Essam: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 47%, Shehab Essam: 56%.

A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 26,505, level confidence: 47%.
Final level for Shehab Essam: 27,227, level confidence: 56%.