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Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu v Angus Gillams (Tue 15 Oct 2019)

Match won by Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu. Result: 6-11,11-5,11-9,11-7.

Starting level for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 26,427, level confidence: 47%.
Starting level for Angus Gillams: 25,933, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Angus Gillams.

Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu played 24% better than Angus Gillams in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu actually played at a level of 29,148 and Angus Gillams at a level of 23,512. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu changes to +10.2% and Angus Gillams changes to -5.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu becomes +2.6% and for Angus Gillams becomes -1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Srfi Indian Tour' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 69%, Angus Gillams: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 62%, Angus Gillams: 81%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 27,091, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Angus Gillams: 25,552, level confidence: 81%.