Jaymie Haycocks v Matias Tuomi (Wed 16 Oct 2019)
Match won by Jaymie Haycocks. Result: 11-7,9-11,14-12,11-6.
Starting level for
Jaymie Haycocks:
27,128, level confidence: 42%.
Starting level for
Matias Tuomi:
15,124, level confidence: 61%.
Jaymie Haycocks to win as he is currently playing
79% better than Matias Tuomi.
Jaymie Haycocks won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jaymie Haycocks played
25% better than Matias Tuomi in this match.
As Jaymie Haycocks has played below his allowed range at 20,595, his level reduction is 8.9% before damping. On the assumption that Jaymie Haycocks would normally have been playing at level 24,671 (based on typical behaviour), Matias Tuomi played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.6% and 10.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks changes to -6.6% and Matias Tuomi changes to +7.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks becomes -2% and for Matias Tuomi becomes +2.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Chicago Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jaymie Haycocks: 65%, Matias Tuomi: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jaymie Haycocks: 54%, Matias Tuomi: 65%.
Final level for Jaymie Haycocks:
26,607, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Matias Tuomi:
15,473, level confidence: 65%.