Mark Broekman v Anthony Rogal (Wed 16 Oct 2019)
Match won by Mark Broekman. Result: 11-7,11-3,5-11,11-2.
Starting level for
Mark Broekman:
12,788, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for
Anthony Rogal:
16,021, level confidence: 66%.
Anthony Rogal to win as he is currently playing
25% better than Mark Broekman.
Mark Broekman won 75% of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Broekman played
38% better than Anthony Rogal in this match. An upset!
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Broekman actually played at a level of
16,831 and Anthony Rogal at a level of
12,172. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Broekman changes to +28% and Anthony Rogal changes to -21%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Broekman becomes +6.7% and for Anthony Rogal becomes -5.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cleveland Skating Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Broekman: 72%, Anthony Rogal: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Broekman: 55%, Anthony Rogal: 62%.
A final adjustment of +1.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mark Broekman:
13,650, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Anthony Rogal:
15,629, level confidence: 62%.