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Harry Falconer v Thomas King (Wed 16 Oct 2019)

Match won by Harry Falconer. Result: 11-4,11-5,11-7.

Starting level for Harry Falconer: 20,820, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Thomas King: 7,327, level confidence: 54%.
Harry Falconer to win as he is currently playing 184% better than Thomas King.

Harry Falconer won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Falconer played 106% better than Thomas King in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Harry Falconer was taking it easy by anything up to 23%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 12,461 and 20,820 without affecting his level.

In this case, Harry Falconer played at level 15,601 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Harry Falconer would normally have been playing at level 16,107 (based on typical behaviour), Thomas King played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Falconer changes to 0% and Thomas King changes to +1.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Falconer becomes 0% and for Thomas King becomes +1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cleveland Skating Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Falconer: 84%, Thomas King: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Falconer: 72%, Thomas King: 63%.

Final level for Harry Falconer: 20,820, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Thomas King: 7,402, level confidence: 63%.