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Daryl Selby v Ondrej Uherka (Wed 16 Oct 2019)

Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 11-6,11-5,11-2.

Starting level for Daryl Selby: 36,223, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Ondrej Uherka: 15,416, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing 135% better than Ondrej Uherka.

Daryl Selby won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 154% better than Ondrej Uherka in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Daryl Selby actually played at a level of 37,650 and Ondrej Uherka at a level of 14,832. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.6% and 2.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to +2.6% and Ondrej Uherka changes to -2.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes +1% and for Ondrej Uherka becomes -1.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tring Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 83%, Ondrej Uherka: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 80%, Ondrej Uherka: 82%.

Final level for Daryl Selby: 36,582, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Ondrej Uherka: 15,248, level confidence: 82%.