Daryl Selby v Ondrej Uherka (Wed 16 Oct 2019)
Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 11-6,11-5,11-2.
Starting level for
Daryl Selby:
36,223, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for
Ondrej Uherka:
15,416, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing
135% better than Ondrej Uherka.
Daryl Selby won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played
154% better than Ondrej Uherka in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Daryl Selby actually played at a level of
37,650 and Ondrej Uherka at a level of
14,832. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.9% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.6% and 2.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to +2.6% and Ondrej Uherka changes to -2.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes +1% and for Ondrej Uherka becomes -1.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tring Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 83%, Ondrej Uherka: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 80%, Ondrej Uherka: 82%.
Final level for Daryl Selby:
36,582, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Ondrej Uherka:
15,248, level confidence: 82%.