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Ben Coleman v Emyr Evans (Wed 16 Oct 2019)

Match won by Ben Coleman. Result: 8-11,11-7,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Ben Coleman: 30,311, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Emyr Evans: 26,817, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Ben Coleman to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Emyr Evans.

Ben Coleman won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 37% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Coleman played 29% better than Emyr Evans in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ben Coleman actually played at a level of 32,363 and Emyr Evans at a level of 25,117. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Coleman changes to +6.4% and Emyr Evans changes to -4.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Coleman becomes +1.9% and for Emyr Evans becomes -1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tring Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Coleman: 74%, Emyr Evans: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Coleman: 70%, Emyr Evans: 81%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ben Coleman: 30,806, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Emyr Evans: 26,492, level confidence: 81%.