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Ivan Yuen v Aditya Jagtap (Wed 16 Oct 2019)

Match won by Ivan Yuen. Result: 11-2,11-9,12-10.

Starting level for Ivan Yuen: 34,322, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Aditya Jagtap: 26,895, level confidence: 65%.
Ivan Yuen to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Aditya Jagtap.

Ivan Yuen won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 62% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ivan Yuen played 62% better than Aditya Jagtap in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ivan Yuen actually played at a level of 38,659 and Aditya Jagtap at a level of 23,878. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11.1% and 11.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ivan Yuen changes to +9.1% and Aditya Jagtap changes to -11.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ivan Yuen becomes +2.3% and for Aditya Jagtap becomes -2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Srfi Indian Tour' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ivan Yuen: 90%, Aditya Jagtap: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ivan Yuen: 80%, Aditya Jagtap: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ivan Yuen: 34,991, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Aditya Jagtap: 26,327, level confidence: 72%.