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Ben Coleman v Sebastian Bonmalais (Thu 17 Oct 2019)

Match won by Ben Coleman. Result: 11-7,11-5,11-7.

Starting level for Ben Coleman: 30,631, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Sebastian Bonmalais: 29,478, level confidence: 68%.
Ben Coleman to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Sebastian Bonmalais.

Ben Coleman won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Coleman played 74% better than Sebastian Bonmalais in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ben Coleman actually played at a level of 39,601 and Sebastian Bonmalais at a level of 22,801. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Coleman changes to +28% and Sebastian Bonmalais changes to -29%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Coleman becomes +5.7% and for Sebastian Bonmalais becomes -5.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tring Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Sebastian Bonmalais is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Coleman: 83%, Sebastian Bonmalais: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Coleman: 64%, Sebastian Bonmalais: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ben Coleman: 32,193, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Sebastian Bonmalais: 28,102, level confidence: 64%.