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Lyell Fuller v Alfredo Avila (Fri 18 Oct 2019)

Match won by Lyell Fuller. Result: 11-5,10-12,11-7,5-11,11-7.

Starting level for Lyell Fuller: 24,883, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Alfredo Avila: 30,030, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Alfredo Avila to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Lyell Fuller.

Lyell Fuller won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyell Fuller played 11% better than Alfredo Avila in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lyell Fuller actually played at a level of 28,809 and Alfredo Avila at a level of 25,937. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller changes to +14% and Alfredo Avila changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller becomes +3.5% and for Alfredo Avila becomes -2.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cleveland Skating Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyell Fuller: 83%, Alfredo Avila: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyell Fuller: 72%, Alfredo Avila: 78%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lyell Fuller: 25,759, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Alfredo Avila: 29,261, level confidence: 78%.