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Jan Van Den Herrewegen v Robert Downer (Mon 21 Oct 2019)

Match won by Jan Van Den Herrewegen. Result: 11-8,11-8,11-1.

Starting level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 31,652, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Robert Downer: 21,666, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Jan Van Den Herrewegen to win as he is currently playing 46% better than Robert Downer.

Jan Van Den Herrewegen won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jan Van Den Herrewegen played 94% better than Robert Downer in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jan Van Den Herrewegen actually played at a level of 36,486 and Robert Downer at a level of 18,796. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jan Van Den Herrewegen changes to +12% and Robert Downer changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jan Van Den Herrewegen becomes +3% and for Robert Downer becomes -3%.

Given Jan Van Den Herrewegen's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 57% has been applied to his level change.

Given Robert Downer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 42% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Jan Van Den Herrewegen is +1.4% and for Robert Downer is -1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 84%, Robert Downer: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 73%, Robert Downer: 76%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 32,182, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Robert Downer: 21,387, level confidence: 76%.