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Owain Taylor v Chris Hall (Mon 21 Oct 2019)

Retired pro result: Chris Hall[364798]. Match type: Warwickshire Winter League 2019/20. Last pro match: 2016-06-06 19:30:00. Now: 2019-10-21 19:30:00. Days since: 1232
Match won by Owain Taylor. Result: 11-8,11-8,11-7.

Starting level for Owain Taylor: 22,747, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Chris Hall: 21,537, level confidence: 54%.
Owain Taylor to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Chris Hall.

Owain Taylor won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Owain Taylor played 47% better than Chris Hall in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Owain Taylor actually played at a level of 26,861 and Chris Hall at a level of 18,238. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Owain Taylor changes to +16% and Chris Hall changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Owain Taylor becomes +3.8% and for Chris Hall becomes -6.5%.

Given Owain Taylor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 44% has been applied to his level change.

Given Chris Hall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 42% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Owain Taylor is +2% and for Chris Hall is -3.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Owain Taylor: 77%, Chris Hall: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Owain Taylor: 66%, Chris Hall: 62%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Owain Taylor: 23,254, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Chris Hall: 20,892, level confidence: 62%.