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Joe Blackmur v Tim Vail (Tue 22 Oct 2019)

Match won by Tim Vail. Result: 10-12,3-11,11-8,4-11.

Starting level for Joe Blackmur: 8,937, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tim Vail: 22,036, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Tim Vail to win as he is currently playing 147% better than Joe Blackmur.

Tim Vail won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Vail played 33% better than Joe Blackmur in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tim Vail was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 14,010 and 22,036 without affecting his level.

As Tim Vail has played below his allowed range at 12,917, his level reduction is 8.5% before damping. On the assumption that Tim Vail would normally have been playing at level 18,018 (based on typical behaviour), Joe Blackmur played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 23%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.3% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Vail changes to -4.8% and Joe Blackmur changes to +14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Vail becomes -1.7% and for Joe Blackmur becomes +4.2%.

Given Tim Vail's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 43% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Joe Blackmur's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Tim Vail is -0.9% and for Joe Blackmur is +2.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Vail: 89%, Joe Blackmur: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Vail: 65%, Joe Blackmur: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joe Blackmur: 9,171, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Tim Vail: 21,815, level confidence: 65%.