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Lewis Anderson v Hasnaat Farooqi (Wed 23 Oct 2019)

Match won by Lewis Anderson. Result: 11-9,11-7,11-9.

Starting level for Lewis Anderson: 16,196, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Hasnaat Farooqi: 8,917, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Lewis Anderson to win as he is currently playing 82% better than Hasnaat Farooqi.

Lewis Anderson won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Anderson played 40% better than Hasnaat Farooqi in this match.

As Lewis Anderson has played below his allowed range at 12,705, his level reduction is 2.1% before damping. On the assumption that Lewis Anderson would normally have been playing at level 14,673 (based on typical behaviour), Hasnaat Farooqi played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.5% and 6.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson changes to -1.5% and Hasnaat Farooqi changes to +5.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson becomes -0.7% and for Hasnaat Farooqi becomes +2.2%.

Given Lewis Anderson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 32% has been applied to his level change.

Given Hasnaat Farooqi's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Lewis Anderson is -0.4% and for Hasnaat Farooqi is +1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Anderson: 82%, Hasnaat Farooqi: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Anderson: 72%, Hasnaat Farooqi: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lewis Anderson: 16,164, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Hasnaat Farooqi: 9,062, level confidence: 77%.