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Neil Cordell v Scott Handley (Wed 23 Oct 2019)

Match won by Neil Cordell. Result: 11-7,11-3,11-0.

Starting level for Neil Cordell: 17,249, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Scott Handley: 13,841, level confidence: 66%.
Neil Cordell to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Scott Handley.

Neil Cordell won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neil Cordell played 230% better than Scott Handley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Neil Cordell actually played at a level of 28,069 and Scott Handley at a level of 8,506. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 63% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 55% and 55% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neil Cordell changes to +51% and Scott Handley changes to -55%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neil Cordell becomes +10.3% and for Scott Handley becomes -12%.

Given Neil Cordell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 34% has been applied to his level change.

Given Scott Handley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 27% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Neil Cordell is +5.8% and for Scott Handley is -6.5%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Scott Handley is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neil Cordell: 85%, Scott Handley: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neil Cordell: 52%, Scott Handley: 50%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Neil Cordell: 18,283, level confidence: 52%.
Final level for Scott Handley: 13,210, level confidence: 50%.