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Oliver Pett v Daryl Selby (Wed 23 Oct 2019)

Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 9-11,9-11,13-11,6-11.

Starting level for Oliver Pett: 21,204, level confidence: 36%.
Starting level for Daryl Selby: 36,143, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing 70% better than Oliver Pett.

Daryl Selby won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 23% better than Oliver Pett in this match.

As Daryl Selby has played below his allowed range at 28,049, his level reduction is 7.6% before damping. On the assumption that Daryl Selby would normally have been playing at level 33,353 (based on typical behaviour), Oliver Pett played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.7% and 9.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to -2.7% and Oliver Pett changes to +9.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes -1.1% and for Oliver Pett becomes +2.7%.

Given Daryl Selby's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 63% has been applied to his level change.

Given Oliver Pett's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 41% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Daryl Selby is -0.5% and for Oliver Pett is +1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 86%, Oliver Pett: 60%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 73%, Oliver Pett: 51%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Oliver Pett: 21,561, level confidence: 51%.
Final level for Daryl Selby: 36,059, level confidence: 73%.