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Anthony Rogal v Angus Gillams (Wed 23 Oct 2019)

Match won by Angus Gillams. Result: 8-11,11-9,2-11,3-11.

Starting level for Anthony Rogal: 15,792, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Angus Gillams: 25,785, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Angus Gillams to win as he is currently playing 63% better than Anthony Rogal.

Angus Gillams won 75% of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 75% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Angus Gillams played 42% better than Anthony Rogal in this match.

In this case, Angus Gillams played at level 23,189 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Angus Gillams would normally have been playing at level 24,064 (based on typical behaviour), Anthony Rogal played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Angus Gillams changes to 0% and Anthony Rogal changes to +2.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Angus Gillams becomes 0% and for Anthony Rogal becomes +1.3%.

Given Anthony Rogal's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 31% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Angus Gillams is 0% and for Anthony Rogal is +0.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Angus Gillams: 89%, Anthony Rogal: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Angus Gillams: 82%, Anthony Rogal: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Anthony Rogal: 15,950, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Angus Gillams: 25,847, level confidence: 82%.