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Jan Van Den Herrewegen v Tom Richards (Wed 23 Oct 2019)

Match won by Tom Richards. Result: 8-11,11-9,6-11,9-11.

Starting level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 32,369, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tom Richards: 38,455, level confidence: 57%.
Tom Richards to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Jan Van Den Herrewegen.

Tom Richards won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Richards played 25% better than Jan Van Den Herrewegen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Richards actually played at a level of 39,369 and Jan Van Den Herrewegen at a level of 31,618. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Richards changes to +2.2% and Jan Van Den Herrewegen changes to -1.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Richards becomes +0.8% and for Jan Van Den Herrewegen becomes -0.7%.

Given Tom Richards's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 66% has been applied to his level change.

Given Jan Van Den Herrewegen's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 58% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Tom Richards is +0.4% and for Jan Van Den Herrewegen is -0.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Richards: 75%, Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Richards: 74%, Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 83%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 32,347, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Tom Richards: 38,697, level confidence: 74%.