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Alex Phillips v Joe Lee (Wed 23 Oct 2019)

Retired pro result: Joe Lee[318132]. Match type: Surrey Winter League 2019/20. Last pro match: 2017-04-09 19:00:00. Now: 2019-10-23 19:00:00. Days since: 927
Match won by Joe Lee. Result: 9-11,10-12,5-11.

Starting level for Alex Phillips: 13,217, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Joe Lee: 24,918, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Joe Lee to win as he is currently playing 89% better than Alex Phillips.

Joe Lee won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joe Lee played 46% better than Alex Phillips in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Joe Lee was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 19,422 and 24,918 without affecting his level.

As Joe Lee has played below his allowed range at 19,364, his level reduction is 0.3% before damping. On the assumption that Joe Lee would normally have been playing at level 22,306 (based on typical behaviour), Alex Phillips played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joe Lee changes to 0% and Alex Phillips changes to +5.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joe Lee becomes -0.2% and for Alex Phillips becomes +2%.

Given Joe Lee's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 48% has been applied to his level change.

Given Alex Phillips's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 25% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Joe Lee is 0% and for Alex Phillips is +1.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joe Lee: 85%, Alex Phillips: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joe Lee: 75%, Alex Phillips: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alex Phillips: 13,400, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Joe Lee: 24,944, level confidence: 75%.