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Adam Auckland v Harry Falconer (Wed 23 Oct 2019)

Match won by Adam Auckland. Result: 14-12,11-4,11-1.

Starting level for Adam Auckland: 20,383, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Harry Falconer: 20,132, level confidence: 66%.
Adam Auckland to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Harry Falconer.

Adam Auckland won all of the games and 68% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 112% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam Auckland played 112% better than Harry Falconer in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adam Auckland actually played at a level of 29,478 and Harry Falconer at a level of 13,920. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 45% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam Auckland changes to +44% and Harry Falconer changes to -44%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam Auckland becomes +8.9% and for Harry Falconer becomes -9%.

Given Adam Auckland's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 40% has been applied to his level change.

Given Harry Falconer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 39% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Adam Auckland is +4.8% and for Harry Falconer is -4.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam Auckland: 81%, Harry Falconer: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam Auckland: 56%, Harry Falconer: 56%.

A final adjustment of +1.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adam Auckland: 21,414, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Harry Falconer: 19,730, level confidence: 56%.