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Richie Fallows v Patrick Rooney (Wed 23 Oct 2019)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 3-11,11-8,11-13,0-11.

Starting level for Richie Fallows: 30,533, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 38,344, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Richie Fallows.

Patrick Rooney won 75% of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 72% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 41% better than Richie Fallows in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick Rooney actually played at a level of 40,559 and Richie Fallows at a level of 28,866. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.8% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.1% and 5.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to +5.1% and Richie Fallows changes to -4.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes +1.6% and for Richie Fallows becomes -1.6%.

Given Patrick Rooney's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 66% has been applied to his level change.

Given Richie Fallows's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 56% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Patrick Rooney is +0.7% and for Richie Fallows is -0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 84%, Richie Fallows: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 80%, Richie Fallows: 83%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richie Fallows: 30,385, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Patrick Rooney: 38,709, level confidence: 80%.