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Scott Handley v Stuart Milton (Tue 22 Oct 2019)

Match won by Scott Handley. Result: 11-3,11-7,11-5.

Starting level for Scott Handley: 13,468, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Stuart Milton: 10,456, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Scott Handley to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Stuart Milton.

Scott Handley won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Scott Handley played 120% better than Stuart Milton in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Scott Handley actually played at a level of 17,601 and Stuart Milton at a level of 8,001. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Scott Handley changes to +27% and Stuart Milton changes to -26%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Scott Handley becomes +6.4% and for Stuart Milton becomes -6.8%.

Given Scott Handley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 26% has been applied to his level change.

Given Stuart Milton's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 18% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2019' so the adjustment for Scott Handley is +3.8% and for Stuart Milton is -4.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Scott Handley: 87%, Stuart Milton: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Scott Handley: 67%, Stuart Milton: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Scott Handley: 13,963, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Stuart Milton: 10,021, level confidence: 67%.