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Omar Elkattan v Ben Coleman (Thu 24 Oct 2019)

Match won by Omar Elkattan. Result: 11-9,16-14,13-11.

Starting level for Omar Elkattan: 17,152, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ben Coleman: 31,798, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Ben Coleman to win as he is currently playing 85% better than Omar Elkattan.

Omar Elkattan won all of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Omar Elkattan played 30% better than Ben Coleman in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Omar Elkattan actually played at a level of 26,625 and Ben Coleman at a level of 20,485. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 55% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 38% and 38% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Omar Elkattan changes to +38% and Ben Coleman changes to -36%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Omar Elkattan becomes +8.2% and for Ben Coleman becomes -6.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Swiss Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Omar Elkattan is limited to +6.8% and Ben Coleman is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Omar Elkattan: 87%, Ben Coleman: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Omar Elkattan: 56%, Ben Coleman: 57%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Omar Elkattan: 18,318, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Ben Coleman: 30,749, level confidence: 57%.