Chris Hall v George Orton (Mon 28 Oct 2019)
Match won by Chris Hall. Result: 11-1,11-2,11-2.
Starting level for
Chris Hall:
21,053, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for
George Orton:
3,913, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Chris Hall to win as he is currently playing
438% better than George Orton.
Chris Hall won all of the games and 87% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 560% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Hall played
560% better than George Orton in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Hall actually played at a level of
23,318 and George Orton at a level of
3,533. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.8% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.5% and 4.5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Hall changes to +4.5% and George Orton changes to -3.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Hall becomes +1.6% and for George Orton becomes -2%.
Given Chris Hall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 41% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Chris Hall is +0.8% and for George Orton is -1.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Hall: 78%, George Orton: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Hall: 70%, George Orton: 80%.
A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Chris Hall:
21,285, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for George Orton:
3,864, level confidence: 80%.