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Scott Handley v Ben Coleman (Tue 29 Oct 2019)

Match won by Ben Coleman. Result: 8-11,4-11,8-11.

Starting level for Scott Handley: 13,331, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for Ben Coleman: 30,898, level confidence: 56%.
Ben Coleman to win as he is currently playing 132% better than Scott Handley.

Ben Coleman won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Coleman played 65% better than Scott Handley in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Ben Coleman was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 20,636 and 30,898 without affecting his level.

In this case, Ben Coleman played at level 23,833 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Ben Coleman would normally have been playing at level 25,824 (based on typical behaviour), Scott Handley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Coleman changes to 0% and Scott Handley changes to +5.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Coleman becomes 0% and for Scott Handley becomes +2%.

Given Scott Handley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 26% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2019' so the adjustment for Ben Coleman is 0% and for Scott Handley is +1.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Coleman: 75%, Scott Handley: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Coleman: 63%, Scott Handley: 59%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Scott Handley: 13,466, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Ben Coleman: 30,852, level confidence: 63%.