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Declan James v Mark Fuller (Tue 29 Oct 2019)

Match won by Declan James. Result: 7-11,11-4,11-3,6-11,11-8.

Starting level for Declan James: 41,035, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Mark Fuller: 19,293, level confidence: 90%. Set manually.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing 113% better than Mark Fuller.

Declan James won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played 14% better than Mark Fuller in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Declan James was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 29,204 and 41,035 without affecting his level.

As Declan James has played below his allowed range at 25,297, his level reduction is 15% before damping. On the assumption that Declan James would normally have been playing at level 35,278 (based on typical behaviour), Mark Fuller played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 27%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.3% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to -10.3% and Mark Fuller changes to +13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes -2.5% and for Mark Fuller becomes +3.5%.

Given Declan James's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 69% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Mark Fuller's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 38% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Declan James is -1.1% and for Mark Fuller is +1.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 83%, Mark Fuller: 95%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 60%, Mark Fuller: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Declan James: 40,694, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Mark Fuller: 19,705, level confidence: 69%.