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Mike Harris v Lee Curtis (Wed 30 Oct 2019)

Match won by Mike Harris. Result: 11-5,11-3,11-8.

Starting level for Mike Harris: 21,147, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Lee Curtis: 5,263, level confidence: 61%.
Mike Harris to win as he is currently playing 302% better than Lee Curtis.

Mike Harris won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Harris played 106% better than Lee Curtis in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mike Harris was taking it easy by anything up to 35%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 8,152 and 21,147 without affecting his level.

In this case, Mike Harris played at level 12,259 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Mike Harris would normally have been playing at level 13,844 (based on typical behaviour), Lee Curtis played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Harris changes to 0% and Lee Curtis changes to +6.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Harris becomes 0% and for Lee Curtis becomes +2.7%.

Given Lee Curtis's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.1% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Devon Mixed League 2019' so the adjustment for Mike Harris is 0% and for Lee Curtis is +2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Harris: 80%, Lee Curtis: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Harris: 57%, Lee Curtis: 56%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike Harris: 21,115, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Lee Curtis: 5,359, level confidence: 56%.