Lyell Fuller v Mohamed Nabil (Wed 30 Oct 2019)
Match won by Lyell Fuller. Result: 11-7,10-12,13-11,13-11.
Starting level for
Lyell Fuller:
25,486, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mohamed Nabil:
14,731, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Lyell Fuller to win as he is currently playing
73% better than Mohamed Nabil.
Lyell Fuller won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyell Fuller played
22% better than Mohamed Nabil in this match.
As Lyell Fuller has played below his allowed range at 19,635, his level reduction is 9.6% before damping. On the assumption that Lyell Fuller would normally have been playing at level 23,422 (based on typical behaviour), Mohamed Nabil played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.2% and 10.7% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller changes to -6.8% and Mohamed Nabil changes to +10.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller becomes -2% and for Mohamed Nabil becomes +3.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Barbados Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyell Fuller: 87%, Mohamed Nabil: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyell Fuller: 73%, Mohamed Nabil: 70%.
Final level for Lyell Fuller:
24,982, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Mohamed Nabil:
15,185, level confidence: 70%.