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Lyell Fuller v Alex Noakes (Thu 31 Oct 2019)

Match won by Lyell Fuller. Result: 11-8,11-9,11-7.

Starting level for Lyell Fuller: 25,109, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Alex Noakes: 10,139, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Lyell Fuller to win as he is currently playing 148% better than Alex Noakes.

Lyell Fuller won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyell Fuller played 43% better than Alex Noakes in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Lyell Fuller was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 16,734 and 25,109 without affecting his level.

As Lyell Fuller has played below his allowed range at 15,591, his level reduction is 7.3% before damping. On the assumption that Lyell Fuller would normally have been playing at level 20,498 (based on typical behaviour), Alex Noakes played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 19%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.6% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller changes to -4.6% and Alex Noakes changes to +10.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller becomes -1.6% and for Alex Noakes becomes +3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Barbados Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyell Fuller: 85%, Alex Noakes: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyell Fuller: 65%, Alex Noakes: 68%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lyell Fuller: 24,718, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Alex Noakes: 10,473, level confidence: 68%.