Shawn Delierre v Lyell Fuller (Fri 01 Nov 2019)
Match won by Shawn Delierre. Result: 11-7,8-11,11-2,11-4.
Starting level for
Shawn Delierre:
25,184, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Lyell Fuller:
24,544, level confidence: 64%.
Shawn Delierre to win as he is currently playing
3% better than Lyell Fuller.
Shawn Delierre won 75% of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 71% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Shawn Delierre played
40% better than Lyell Fuller in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Shawn Delierre actually played at a level of
29,430 and Lyell Fuller at a level of
21,003. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Shawn Delierre changes to +13% and Lyell Fuller changes to -17%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Shawn Delierre becomes +3.3% and for Lyell Fuller becomes -3.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Barbados Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Shawn Delierre: 89%, Lyell Fuller: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Shawn Delierre: 77%, Lyell Fuller: 69%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Shawn Delierre:
25,932, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Lyell Fuller:
23,739, level confidence: 69%.