Max Forster v Lewis Anderson (Sat 02 Nov 2019)
Match won by Lewis Anderson. Result: 11-13,5-11,11-4,6-11.
Starting level for
Max Forster:
21,780, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Lewis Anderson:
16,529, level confidence: 62%.
Max Forster to win as he is currently playing
32% better than Lewis Anderson.
Lewis Anderson won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Anderson played
23% better than Max Forster in this match. An upset!
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lewis Anderson actually played at a level of
21,021 and Max Forster at a level of
17,125. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson changes to +23% and Max Forster changes to -17%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson becomes +5.5% and for Max Forster becomes -4.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Dunlop British Junior Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Anderson: 79%, Max Forster: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Anderson: 62%, Max Forster: 70%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Max Forster:
20,887, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Lewis Anderson:
17,418, level confidence: 62%.